Valencia vs Levante Match Preview: Goals to flow in Derbi de Valencia

An out of form Valencia side take on their city rivals Levante in a huge game for the both teams for differing reasons. Infogol’s Analyst uses the underlying expected goals (xG) data to produce the best bets.

 

Valencia

Mestalla hosts the return fixture of the Derbi de Valencia. Valencia appear to be grinding to a halt in their pursuit of Champions League football, and suffered their fifth defeat in seven matches against Atletico Madrid last weekend (ATL 0.9 – 0.7 VAL xG).

This poor run of form was predicted, as Valencia were out-performing their expected goals by an unsustainable margin. After 15 matches, they were over-performing their expected goal difference by 17 goals. In seven matches since then, they have conceded 13.9 xG, at an average of nearly 2 xG per game.

La Liga xG table after game week 22

 

Levante

Levante come into this derby in poor form having failed to win in 10 matches, but they should be on a high after a deserved late equaliser against Real Madrid last weekend. Giampaolo Pazzini netted on his debut, and will hope to provide Levante what they have been lacking – goals.

They are hovering just above the relegation zone after a quick start, and though Infogol’s expected table suggests that their performances warrant them being higher in the table (15th), they have the third worst defensive record according to xG.

 

Conclusion

The first meeting of these two sides finished in a 1-1 draw, though the xG totals suggested that Valencia were unfortunate not to win (VAL 1.8 -1.1 LEV xG). Despite their poor form, they are the better team, and should prevail in an exciting derby.

Recommended bets:

Over 2.5 goals @ 8/13

Given the number of chances both sides surrender, the fair price on Over 2.5 goals is worth taking.

Valencia to win and both teams to score @ 15/8

Infogol give Valencia a 59% chance of winning this game, but as stated already, they are likely to concede chances. Valencia to win and both teams to score looks a sensible bet at 15/8.

 

Recent blog entries