Tottenham vs Arsenal Match Preview: Spurs to close the door on Arsenal’s top four hopes

The North London derby kicks off this weekend’s Premier League action, with Tottenham taking on Arsenal at Wembley. Infogol’s Analyst previews the big game, and generates the best bets using expected goals (xG) data.


Tottenham come into this game on the back of a good week, beating Manchester United 2-0 at Wembley before getting a deserved point at Anfield in what was an excellent game of football with great goals and great controversy.

A late Harry Kane penalty against Liverpool – his second in the game – kept Spurs within touching distance of the Champions League spots. They have been the second best team in the league this season according to Infogol’s expected table, and this is expected to show in this match.

Infogol’s expected goal table: Spurs in second

 Tottenham continue to impress in attack, generating a host of chances in their matches so far this season (51.6 xG), so it is no wonder to see Harry Kane at the top of the scoring charts once again. He has a great record against Arsenal and, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him have a say in this match.


The Gunners gained a much-needed win against Everton last weekend, and an emphatic one at that, meaning they still have a very small chance of making the top four. A deserved 5-1 win in that game (ARS 2.7 – 1.4 EVE xG) gives Arsenal a sense of a new beginning and a new era.

Henrikh Mkhitaryan stole the show on his home debut, registering three assists. His re-united partnership with Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang – one that flourished at Borussia Dortmund – got off to the best possible start, and these two arguably carry Arsenal’s biggest goal threat.

Mkhitaryan and Aubameyang carry Arsenal’s biggest threat

Although they have improved their attacking options, their defensive issues remain. Even against Everton they conceded good chances, and have conceded 33.5 xG in 26 matches – an average of 1.3 xG per game.


Both teams are strong and both create a lot of chances, but it is Arsenal that have the biggest weakness, and their defence is expected to be exploited by Spurs in what should be an entertaining match.


Recommended bets:

Tottenham win @ 1/1

Spurs are the better of the two sides, and are expected to get the three points and end Arsenal’s already thin hopes of a top four finish.

Both teams to score @ 1/2

With both teams having a lot of attacking talent, both teams to score is an obvious selection.

Tottenham to win 2-1 @ 8/1 

Infogol’s model suggests that 2-1 is the most likely result based on forecasted expected goal totals: TOT 1.9 – 1.1 ARS.


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