Super Sunday Betting Preview: Goals forecast at Newcastle and Southampton
Manchester United travel to Newcastle, while Liverpool head to Southampton on Super Sunday. Infogol’s Analyst previews all four matches taking place, using expected goals (xG) to find the best bets.
Aston Villa vs Birmingham – 12:00
Villa Park hosts the return fixture of the “Second City Derby”. A draw back in October was a fair reflection of the match (xG: 1.57 - 1.10), but things have changed coming into this game, with Aston Villa mounting a challenge for automatic promotion, and Birmingham City trying to pull clear of a relegation scrap.
Villa have won their last six matches, scoring 14 goals in that time and conceding just three. Steve Bruce has got his side playing well, but they have been fortunate in recent games to have scored as many as they have (7.4 xG).
Birmingham have been tough to beat of late, with back to back wins moving them four points clear of the relegation zone. Steve Cotterill looks to have improved the Blues, especially in defence, as they have conceded just 5.5 xG in six matches – less than one xG per game which is an impressive number. Both teams possess a solid defensive unit and the suggestion is this will be a tight derby, with few goals.
Selection – Under 2.5 goals @ 8/13
Huddersfield vs Bournemouth – 12:00
Huddersfield slumped into the relegation zone after a fifth straight defeat, deservedly beaten by Manchester United. An FA Cup win in midweek, albeit in extra-time, will give them confidence, but that may not be enough. According to Infogol’s expected goal table, the Terriers have been the worst team this season based on performances. They have by far the worst attack based on expected goals (22.2 xG), and this may well be their downfall come the end of the season.
Bournemouth, on the other hand, are on a great run of form and haven’t tasted defeat in their last seven matches. They came from behind to deservedly beat Stoke last weekend, rounding off a great week which also saw them beat Chelsea 3-0 at Stamford Bridge. Eddie Howe has certainly turned his team around, as they now sit ninth in the table.
Huddersfield are desperate for points, and this is a must-not-lose game for them, so few goals are anticipated in a close game.
Selection – Under 2.5 goals @ 4/6
Newcastle vs Manchester United – 14:15
Newcastle remain in serious danger after one win in seven matches. They gained a point against Crystal Palace last weekend, but were out-played and very fortunate to escape with a draw (CRY 3.1 – 1.3 NEW xG). They have conceded 42.3 xG this season, and defensive weakness is expected to be on show once more, even in front of their own fans.
Manchester United haven't been as impressive this season as the league table suggests, as Infogol’s expected table suggests that their performances only warrant them being sixth in the table. They edged past Huddersfield last time out in unconvincing fashion, winning 2-0, but you still get the feeling that there is more to come from Mourinho’s team.
Newcastle are very poor at the back and Manchester United can exploit this, with over 2.5 goals looking good value.
Selection – Over 2.5 goals @ 11/10
Southampton vs Liverpool – 16:30
Southampton eased the pressure on their under-fire boss Mauricio Pellegrini with a 3-2 victory over West Brom last time out, though they were fortunate to hit the net three times from the chances they created (1 xG).
Southampton’s performances have warranted them being higher in the league and clear of the drop zone - they haven’t scored as many goals as they should have from the chances they have created, but they have the attacking ability to cause Liverpool problems in this game.
Liverpool spurned the chance to put themselves in the driving seat in the race for the top four when conceding a late equaliser to Tottenham, having taken a late lead through Mo Salah’s 21st goal of the season. Liverpool have the second best attack in the league according to expected goals (55.7 xG), but are always capable of conceding goals, a problem that Jurgen Klopp is yet to fix.
This may be a tougher test than expected for Liverpool. Both sides generate and concede plenty of chances so both teams to score looks the best bet.
Selection – Both teams to score @ 4/6
Acca pays around 8/1