Sky Bet Championship GW29 Review

Another exciting week of Sky Bet Championship action has come to an end, with four matches on Saturday and seven on Tuesday providing plenty of talking points. Our Analyst reviews the main talking points, assessing performances and not just results.

 

 

Actual vs Expected Goal totals for Championship GW29

Actual vs Expected Goal totals for Championship GW29

 

The most ‘unfair’ result of the gameweek came at Ashton Gate on Saturday, where Bristol City ended a four match winless run to record a 2-0 win over QPR, despite playing just under an hour with 10 men. The hosts recovered to score both of their goals after the dismissal, but the circumstances go some way to explaining why the hosts were second best in terms of xG on the day, registering no shots and conceding 1 xG after doubling their lead in the 66th minute.

Also on Saturday, Norwich stretched their good run of form thanks to a 1-0 away win against Brentford, though the scoreline doesn’t tell the whole story. They rode their luck throughout, and took an early lead through James Maddison in the 5th minute (2% chance) before weathering a Brentford storm. They were fortunate to hang on, though it is worth noting that Brentford’s best chance was a 0.2 xG, with the rest low-probability efforts on goal.

 

 

In Tuesday’s televised game, it was Aston Villa that grabbed victory against Sheffield United, with Robert Snodgrass’ low-probability goal (5%) the difference between the teams. The Blades can feel hard done by, as they created the better of the chances in what was a very tight game between two play-off contenders.

Elsewhere on Tuesday night, Birmingham won the relegation six-pointer against Sunderland, a 3-1 score line that flattered the Blues somewhat (BIR 1.4 – 1.0 SUN xG). It proved to be a key night in the battle to avoid relegation, as Burton were beaten 3-1 at home to Reading,  though their 3-1 win was a much fairer reflection of the game than Birmingham’s was. Both teams have given themselves breathing room for now.

  

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