Real Betis vs Real Madrid Match Preview: Real to continue rampant form
After their great Champions League win in midweek, Real Madrid turn their attentions back to domestic action, with a trip to Real Betis. Infogol’s Analyst previews the game, generating the best bets using expected goals data.
Real Betis expected goals
Real Betis have given themselves a great chance as any of finishing in the European places, after a run of four wins in six matches moved them to within three points of sixth and four of fifth. While on the surface everything is going swimmingly, their recent performances have been poor, and they have been fortunate to have picked up as many points as they have.
They sit 14th in Infogol’s expected goals table, but eight in the league, so it is clear to see that they have been over-performing this season. Their last six games has seen them score 13 goals and pick up 12 points, but based on their performances they were expected to score closer to 9 (8.5 xG) and pick up 6 points (5.9 xPoints).
They concede too many chances in matches (42.1 xG) to be taken seriously as European contenders, and if their process remains the same, then it will be another mid-table finish for Betis – which they would have taken at the start of the season.
Real Madrid expected goals
Real Madrid come into this on a big high after beating PSG 3-1 in the Champions League, a good performance which means they now have one foot in the next round. This sort of performance was expected though, as Madrid have performed well all season long but just haven’t had the luck with them in both the league and the Champions League.
Their process has been good all season, and in La Liga they have underscored by nearly 13 goals (actual – 50, expected 62.8 xG). There have been signs recently that this has begun to even itself out, with Madrid hitting 18 goals in their last four league matches, and this attacking form is expected to continue.
Cristiano Ronaldo has come under a lot of scrutiny this season regarding his goal tally, but his process remains good, he just hasn’t had that bit of luck. He has had 19.3 xG this season, but has only scored 11, unusual for Ronaldo. The signs have been there recently though that he too is getting that bit of luck, having scored 9 in his last 5 starts. Averaging over 1 xG per 90 minutes, he is sure to have a say in this match.
Selection – Real Madrid to win and over 3.5 goals @ 11/10
Real Madrid are very strong favourites to win this one, and rightly so given how both teams have performed this season. The expected goals total for this game is 3.9, so Madrid to win and over 3.5 goals looks likely.
Selection – Cristiano Ronaldo to score first @ 11/4
Ronaldo is averaging over 1 xG per 90 minutes in La Liga this season so we know he gets chances, and he looks to have got his finishing boots back in on in recent weeks, meaning 11/4 for him to score first could be a huge price.