Liverpool vs Newcastle: Liverpool to rack up the goals again
Liverpool take on Newcastle in the Premier League’s late Saturday kick off, and our Analyst has previewed the game using expected goals, generating the best bets in the process.
Liverpool Expected Goals (xG)
Liverpool thrashed West Ham last weekend 4-1, in which they generated a host of chances once again (xG: LIV 3.7 – 0.4 WHU). That win moved them up into third place in the league and gave them a four point cushion to Chelsea in fifth.
Only Manchester City have a better attacking output than Liverpool this season, as they have generated 61.5 xG in their 28 matches so far this season – averaging 2.2 xG per game. Liverpool continue to impress with their style of their play, with their high-intensity, gung-ho attacking play gaining plenty of plaudits.
Mohamed Salah is the man everyone is talking about, and he registered his 23rd league goal of the season against West Ham last weekend. He is slightly over performing his expected goals tally this season (19.2 xG), but he should definitely get chances in this match, and may notch again.
Newcastle Expected Goals (xG)
Newcastle threw away a two-goal lead against Bournemouth last time out, a result that leaves them just two points above the drop zone. They were unfortunate not to win that game, as they deserved more after a good attacking display (xG: BOU 2.0 – 3.7 NEW).
They are unbeaten in four matches though, including a win against Manchester United, and there have been signs of an improvement in recent weeks. They have the 13th best process in the league according to expected goals, and deserve to be higher than they currently are according to their performances.
They do though, concede a lot of chances in matches, and have the fifth worst defensive record in the league according to xG, having conceded 46.4 xG. Benitez’s side are averaging 1.7 xG per game, and will not be looking forward to facing this Liverpool team.
Liverpool can take advantage of Newcastle’s vulnerable defence and win this game comfortably with plenty of goals in store. Mohamed Salah is expected to get on the scoresheet, and is worth backing to open the scoring.
Liverpool to win and over 3.5 goals @ 13/10
Mohamed Salah to score first @ 5/2