Premier League GW5 Review

Palace still winless – and goalless – Manchester runs riot, and nothing to separate Arsenal and Chelsea. Just a few of the many talking points from another interesting weekend of Premier League football. Infogol’s Analyst will review the action, using expected goals (xG) to assess performances and not just results to paint a clearer picture of the week’s matches, including selecting a Team to Back next time.


Premier League

Actual vs Expected Goal (xG) totals Premier League GW5


Roy Hodgson’s reign as Crystal Palace manager began with a defeat, meaning the Eagles are still looking for their first point (and goal) of the season after five matches. They were beaten 1-0 by Southampton in GW5’s most ‘unfair’ result, but were once again unfortunate to lose, creating plenty of chances without taking advantage – the story of their season so far. They have generated a total of 7.2 xG in their five games, with Infogol calculating just a 0.08% chance that they would have failed to hit the net from the opportunities created. They are in positive expected goal difference (xGD), so their process is good, however the bad news is that their next three matches are against the current top three: Manchester City, Manchester United and Chelsea.


Palace unlucky once again


Burnley, who beat Liverpool at Turf Moor last season, did a number on them again, this time earning a point at Anfield, though they rode their luck throughout, conceding a host of chances which weren’t taken. Liverpool’s frustrations continue to grow, and they are now without a win in three matches in all competitions, despite performing well and generating a lot of chances. On the flip side, Burnley have taken five points from away trips to Stamford Bridge, Wembley and Anfield – an impressive tally, even though they have been fortunate in all of those matches.


Tottenham’s issues with Wembley just won’t go away. Many people thought that after the victory over Dortmund in the Champions League last week Spurs would start making Wembley a fortress, but they were frustrated once again by the visiting team, this time Swansea, who held them to a goalless draw. Spurs were once again unlucky though, as they had chances while conceding very few. They have an xGD at Wembley of +3.2xG and if they maintain this good process and level of performances, results will soon follow.


Spurs still yet to register a home league win


Manchester City (6-0 at Watford) and Manchester United (4-0 at home to Everton) were both empathic winners at the weekend, and they are the joint leaders at this early stage – both with goal differences of +14 which is impressive in itself. Newcastle’s early season worries look to have eased after three straight wins, the latest of which was a very good performance against Stoke (2-1).


Arsenal gained a good point away at Chelsea, and had the better of the chances in a goalless draw. West Brom and West Ham were also involved in a goalless draw which was a ‘fair’ result, whilst Huddersfield and Leicester drew 1-1. Bournemouth deservedly got their first win of the season, thanks to a comeback 2-1 victory over Brighton in what was the game week’s ‘fairest’ result.


GW6 Team to BackNewcastle

Newcastle have been impressive in recent weeks, keeping things tight at the back and creating plenty of chances in attack. They travel to face a toothless Brighton side in GW6, and look a good price at 7/4 to get their fourth win in succession.


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