Premier League GW27 Review: Man Utd unlucky, Spurs dominant

Manchester United’s defeat and Tottenham’s win in the North London Derby were the weekend’s main talking points. Infogol’s Analyst reviews the action, using expected goals data to assess the fairness of the results.

Actual vs Expected goal totals Premier League GW27

The most surprising result of the weekend was in fact the most ‘unfair’ according to expected goals, with Newcastle fortunate to come away with a 1-0 win against Manchester United. Anthony Martial spurned all of United’s big chances in the match, and if he had scored one of those you would have fancied they would have taken all three points. As it was, Newcastle scored and defended like ‘animals’ according to Jose Mourinho, but on another day and with a bit more luck, Manchester United would win this.

Everton gained another home win by beating Crystal Palace 3-1, though the Eagles were unfortunate to lose, especially by such a score line. Palace had the better of the chances according to xG (EVE 1.6 – 1.9 CRY xG), with Everton creating very little apart from goals for Oumar Niasse and Tom Davies. Palace’s process remains good, but they really need to take advantage of the chances they are creating.

Compared to the two above results, the rest of the matches were relatively ’fair’ according to expected goals.

Tottenham impressive: Shot map vs Arsenal

Tottenham deservedly beat Arsenal in the North London derby, but the only ‘unfair’ thing about this result was that Spurs didn’t win more convincingly having generated 3 xG. Even with Charlie Adam’s penalty miss, a 1-1 draw between Stoke and Brighton was still the fairest result, while Manchester City’s 5-1 win over Leicester was the fairest result of the week, as they limited the Foxes to just two shots and 0.2 xG.


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