Premier League GW26 Review: Palace & Leicester unlucky

Man City’s draw with Burnley plus Liverpool and Tottenham’s four-goal thriller take centre stage as Infogol’s Analyst reviews the Premier League action, using expected goals (xG) stats to assess the fairness of the results.

 

Actual vs Expected goal totals Premier League GW26

This week’s most ‘unfair’ result came from Selhurst Park, where Crystal Palace and Newcastle shared a 1-1 draw. The result doesn’t quite tell the whole story though, as Roy Hodgson’s side were dominant throughout and were very unlucky not to come away with all three points (CRY 3.0 – 1.2 NEW xG). This has been the story of Palace’s season so far, as their process has been the seventh best in the league. Expect them to continue to create chances and pick up points.

Leicester were also an unfortunate home team, as they were held by Swansea. The Foxes were far superior on the day, though, as Swansea once again rode their luck before scoring from one of their three shots. The Mahrez saga doesn’t appear to have bothered Leicester too much, as they put in their second positive performance of the week – though they failed to win either.

Raheem Sterling was the difference between Manchester City claiming all three points and not in their game against Burnley, as the City forward squandered their biggest chance in the 71st minute (see image below). Burnley were fortunate to escape with a point, but their winless run continues.

Sterling's big miss

Liverpool and Tottenham played out a cracker at Anfield on Sunday, with two sensational goals (Salah and Wanyama) overshadowed by refereeing decisions. Ultimately, both sides deserved a point. Arsenal’s new look front line caused mayhem for Everton, as they ran out 5-1 winners, though they were fortunate to score five from the chances they created.

Big wins for Bournemouth (2-1 at home to Stoke) and Brighton (3-1 at home to West Ham) were the fairest results of the weekend, as they beat relegation rivals to give themselves some breathing space, while Monday night saw a deserved 4-1 win for Watford against 10-man Chelsea. How long does Antonio Conte have left?

 

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