Using expected goals (xG), Infogol’s Analyst takes a look at the weekend’s action, assessing performances and not just results to paint a clearer picture of the week’s matches, including selecting a Team to Back.
Premier League GW2
Actual vs Expected Goal (xG) totals Premier League GW2
Stoke’s 1-0 win over Arsenal was the third most ‘unfair’ result of the weekend, though not because of the disallowed goal from Lacazette. Arsenal weren’t at their flowing best, but still created some good chances, with the best falling to Aaron Ramsey in the first half who had a 47% chance of scoring his opportunity. Jese’s well taken goal was the difference in the end, but Arsenal will feel, and rightly so, that they deserved a draw at least.
West Brom made it back-to-back 1-0 wins after beating Burnley at the weekend. This was the second most ‘unfair’ result of the weekend, with the Albion creating very few high-quality chances, if any, and conceding good opportunities, the best of which fell to Ben Mee in the first half who had a 48% chance of hitting the net. It’s been a great start to the season for Tony Pulis’ team, but Burnley have shown that they have a lot to offer this term.
Another clean-sheet for the Baggies
The most ‘unfair’ result of the weekend was again Huddersfield Town, this time for their 1-0 home win over Newcastle to maintain their 100% record this season. Huddersfield scored a great goal through Aaron Mooy, but other than that, generated very few opportunities. Newcastle weren’t much better, but did have the better openings. The Terriers were once again fortunate, but neither team was overly impressive.
Chelsea won the big game on Sunday, edging out Tottenham 2-1 in what was a very tight game. Both teams generated a similar amount of xG, so a draw would have arguably been the ‘fairest’ result. Manchester City and Everton both ended Monday’s 1-1 draw with 10-men and shared the spoils after an entertaining game at the Etihad.
GW3 Team to Back – Watford
Watford were very impressive in victory over Bournemouth, and in their draw with Liverpool before that. They play a struggling Brighton in GW3, and look a good bet at 17/20.
Actual vs Expected Goal (xG) totals Championship GW4
Burton’s 2-1 Friday night win over Birmingham City was the third most ‘unfair’ result of the weekend, as the Blues generated more than double the xG of Burton but came out on the losing side. Burton were fortunate not to concede more goals, and maybe a clinical edge infront of goal is what Harry Redknapp was alluding to in his post-match press conference, in which he said new additions were needed.
Ipswich continue to be on the fortunate side of results, and are once again in the top three ‘unfair’ results of the game week. This time they are second, after their 2-0 win over Brentford in which they generated very few chances; they mustered just five shots all game with an xG total of 0.72. Brentford weren’t much better, but didn’t deserve to lose by the score-line they did. The Bees haven’t had much luck so far this season, and are unfortunate to be bottom of the table after four matches.
Ipswich’s good fortune continues
The most ‘unfair’ result of GW4 came at the Stadium of Light, where Leeds beat Sunderland 2-0. They registered eight shots in the match, with an xG total of 0.42, and had just a 6.5% chance of scoring two goals from those chances. Sunderland can count themselves unlucky, as they limited Leeds to only low-probability scoring opportunities.
Sheffield United, Aston Villa, Cardiff and Derby came out on top in the four ‘fairest’ results of GW4, all winning having dominated and created the better chances. Cardiff’s 2-1 win at fellow high-flyers Wolves was the eye-catching result of the weekend, as Neil Warnock’s team continue to go from strength to strength.
GW5 Team to Back – Fulham
Fulham may not have had the start that many expected, and are winless after four matches, but they have been showing glimpses of promise in recent weeks. They face an Ipswich team in GW5 that have been fortunate so far this season, and have a -2.5 xGD compared to their +5 actual GD. Fulham look good value at 5/4 to get their first win.