Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo: Match Preview
Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo betting tips. It’s the Choque-Rei. The meeting of Palmeiras and Sao Paulo, with both teams struggling to get results. A tight, feisty derby is encounter is expected, with Infogol’s Analyst using unique stats and data points to select the best bets.
Palmeiras come into this game without a win in three matches, a run of form which has seen them fall way off the pace of leaders Corinthians, but which has also seen them being caught up by fifth placed Flamengo and sixth placed Cruzeiro.
It isn’t just the results that have been bad for Porco, with performances deteriorating over the last few weeks. They were unfortunate to lose against Atletico Paranaense having created the better chances, but since then, they have struggled in attack and looked vulnerable in defence.
Palmeiras performances mirroring their results
There two most recent games have been a great example of this. Away at Vasco da Gama they were fortunate to come away with a point having conceded more than double the xG of Vasco. Against Chapecoense at home last time out, though they were fortunate to lose 2-0, they didn’t deserve anything from the game having generated only a handful of scoring chances.
There have been a few personnel changes in recent weeks though, with key centre-back Yerry Mina picking up an injury, as well as bringing in a new centre-forward in Deyverson, who is still finding his feet. Palmeiras should begin to improve again towards the end of the season, and that can start in this game.
Sao Paulo remain in the relegation places after 21 matches, with a draw away at fellow strugglers Avai not enough to pull them out. They had improved after the sacking of their manager, but look to be falling back into a similar level of performance which saw Roderigo Ceni get the sack.
They are playing much more of an attacking brand of football, opposite to the previous regime, and have been creating plenty of chances in matches. But in doing so they have been leaving themselves exposed in defence, leading to them conceding a lot of high-quality scoring opportunities and, in turn, goals.
Sao Paulo too gung-ho?
Over their last three matches they have generated 4.4 xG, but have conceded 6.6 xG, so it’s clear where they need to work on. They deservedly drew with Avai, but were very fortunate in the game previous against Cruzeiro. In that game, they conceded a host of chances in what was their worst defensive performance of the season so far, meaning they were exceptionally luck to come away with all three points. They aren’t expected to get as lucky in this match.
With both teams desperate for points, this is expected to be a tight game. Though Sao Paulo have been creating good chances, what is concerning is the amount, and quality, of the chances they have been conceding, and Palmeiras can take advantage of this. New signing Deyverson should lead the line, and if he does, looks the likely first goal-scorer.
Palmeiras @ 1/1
Under 2.5 @ 4/6
Deyverson first goal @ 5/1