Palmeiras vs Fluminense: Big Match Preview

Palmeiras vs Fluminense Betting Tips. Infogol’s Analyst takes a look at one of the big matches in the Brazilian Serie A this weekend, using stats and data to select the best bets.





Reigning champions Palmeiras have made a poor start to the season by their standards, picking up just four points from a possible 15 so far. Their only win of the season so far came in the opening game against Vasco da Gama, and they have struggled since, losing three successive away matches without scoring.


Things not going to plan for Palmeiras


They were beaten by Coritiba in their last game, as they once again failed to create many high-quality scoring opportunities. They created just 0.71 xG in that match, with the best chance they could muster a 0.14 xG effort from Tche Tche in the third minute.


Palmeiras have now failed to score in their last four league games, emphasising their attacking problems, but their best performances have come at the Allianz Parque. Their opening day win against Vasco came at home, and was their best performance of the season to date, creating 3.80 xG in what was the best attacking display of the Brazilian Serie A season to date.


Palmeiras attack vs Vasco da Gama 


Their last home game saw another improved performance against Atletico Mineiro, where they once again created some good chances, with a penalty miss proving costly. Their home form has been encouraging, but the absence of key players through international duty won’t help their cause in this match, as they need to start creating high-quality chances on a regular basis.




Fluminense have made a solid start to the season, winning three and drawing one of their opening five matches. Their performances have been rather patchy throughout the opening weeks of the season, and have been a touch fortunate with some of their results.


Solid start – 10 points so far 


Their opening two matches of the season against Santos and Atletico Mineiro resulted in six points, though they were seemingly fortunate in both as they conceded a lot of chances and xG. 2.47 xG against Santos and 2.04 against Mineiro suggests they got off to a rather sluggish start defensively.


Performances improving  


Better performances followed against Vasco da Gama and Vitoria, where they created plenty of opportunities – 4.4 xG in two matches – before being frustrated by Atletico Paranaense last time out. They have shown they can create a lot of good chances, and pose a threat in this match.




Though Palmeiras have been struggling for form in recent weeks, they will enjoy being back on home soil, and should prove too strong for Fluminense. The home team are expected to create plenty of chances in what should be an exciting game, with the away side getting on the scoresheet.



Palmeiras win @ 4/6 

Palmeiras win + BTTS @ 5/2



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