Palmeiras vs Corinthians: Betting Preview

Palmeiras vs Corinthians betting tips. The Champions, Palmeiras, take on the Champions elect, Corinthians, in Derby Paulista. It’s a rivalry between two of the oldest clubs in the city of Sao Paulo, and Infogol’s Analyst takes a look at the game, using unique stats and data points to select the best bets.

 

Palmeiras

 

Palmeiras were just beginning to find some form after a slow start, that was until their four match winning streak was brought to an abrupt end by Cruzeiro last weekend. They were beaten 3-1 in Belo Horizonte, as they couldn’t capitalise on having the majority of the possession, creating very few high-quality chances (amounting to 0.71 xG) as they succumbed to defeat.

 

They looked vulnerable to the counter attack in that game, and that was what eventually cost them, especially with the third goal. They can count themselves unlucky though, with what looked like a stone wall penalty turned down in the first half before a deflected goal made the score 2-0.

 

Things not going to plan for Palmeiras 

 

That result now leaves them 13 points behind their great rivals Corinthians, making this game even more important, as they need to win to keep their own title challenge alive – a defeat would surely put an end to their chances.

 

There is no question that Palmeiras have improved as the season has gone on, from which they won just one of their opening five games – scoring in just one. They have won five of the following seven matches since, with their performances becoming much more consistent in terms of the creation of chances.

 

What we’ve come to expect from Palmeiras at home – shot map vs Atletico GO 

 

Palmeiras do come into this game with the second best home record in the league, according to Infogol’s expected table, having the second best expected goal difference (xGD) suggesting that their performances are much stronger infront of their home crowd. They create more chances at Allianz Parque than on their travels, and concede fewer, giving them a higher probability of picking up a win in this match.

 

Corinthians

 

Corinthians are the team to beat at the moment in Brazil, after going unbeaten in the league after 12 matches. They have won 10 of those games, including a comfortable win over Ponte Preta last time out, a game in which they created good chances and gained another clean-sheet – their ninth of the season.

 

They are nine points clear at the top of the table after their incredible start, and know that another win here would potentially end the hopes of one of their challengers. They haven’t conceded in their last six games and are a very tough team to break down, meaning they will have a great chance at Allianz Parque.

 

Corinthians showing no sign of relenting 

 

Corinthians have been very consistent so far this season as far as their performances are concerned, always creating chances for themselves, but they are out-performing current xG totals. They have conceded just five goals from their 12 matches so far this season, but their expected goal against total is 13.4, suggesting they have been extremely fortunate not to have conceded more goals this season. In fact, Infogol calculates just a 0.8% chance of this occurring, suggesting that such success may not continue.

  

Riding their luck? – Shot map vs Gremio 

 

Conclusion

 

In what is expected to be an entertaining and fiesty Derby Paulista, a tight game is expected between an improving Palmeiras and an over-performing Corinthians. With what is at stake and the way each team is trending, the home team are expected to get the win and pull closer to Corinthians. If the home team are to get the win, expect them to do it without conceding.

 

Bets 

Palmeiras win @ 13/10

Under 2.5 goals @ 8/13 

Both team not to score @ 4/5

 

 

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