Low-scoring second leg on the cards: Manchester United vs Sevilla Preview

Manchester United take on Sevilla in the second leg of their Champions League last 16 tie, with qualification still in the balance. Infogol’s Analyst previews the game, using expected goals (xG) to assess both teams and generate the best bets.


Manchester United Expected Goals (xG)

Manchester United come into this second leg in good form having beaten Chelsea, Crystal Palace and Liverpool in the last three weeks, and will be looking to carry this momentum through to the end of the season.

The first leg was a strange performance by Jose Mourinho’s side, as he opted to ‘park the bus’ but Sevilla still created a lot of good chances (xG: SEV 2.0 – 0.5 MUN). Had it not been for David de Gea, they could be having to overturn a deficit in this second leg.

1st leg shot-map: United fortunate

It will be interesting to see what approach Mourinho takes in this game, but he will likely err on the side of caution as he always seems to in these big knockout matches. They have the ability to blow Sevilla away here, but this could turn into a nervy night at Old Trafford.


Sevilla Expected Goals (xG)

Sevilla gave a great account of themselves in the first leg and, as stated already, were unfortunate to not come away with a lead. Their form in La Liga since that goalless draw has been mixed, winning two and losing two in La Liga; which Sevilla will turn up in this game?

They have to score at Old Trafford if they are to have any chance of qualifying, and it is possible to see them getting on the scoresheet, as they are a very good attacking side. However, Infogol calculates that they have just a 25.7% chance of making it through.

Infogol calculates that Sevilla have 25.7% chance of qualifying

Sevilla’s problem all season has been in defence, as they concede a lot of chances through their ‘gung-ho’ style of play. There have been improvements of late, with Vincenzo Montella seeing his side’s expected goal against average decrease, and this should contribute to a cagey game.



Another game of few goals is expected at Old Trafford, with little between the teams. Manchester United are taken to edge the match, with a narrow win – including a nervy last few minutes – looking good value.


Recommended Bets:

Under 2.5 goals @ 9/10

Manchester United to win 1-0 @ 11/2


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