Manchester City vs Chelsea: City to add to Blues’ misery
Manchester City take on Chelsea in the Premier League’s late Sunday kick-off, as they close in on what looks like will be a title-winning campaign. Infogol’s Analyst previews the game, using expected goals to assess each team and generate the best bets.
Manchester City Expected Goals (xG)
Everyone is running out of superlatives to describe how good this Manchester City team is, and they were in sensational form in the first half of their midweek match against Arsenal, scoring three great goals. The final expected goals total (xG: ARS 1.5 – 1.5 MCI) suggests the game was a close one, but other than a penalty, Manchester City conceded very few chances.
Their attacking play has been breath-taking so far this season, and they have been by far the best attacking team in the Premier League, generating 68.4 xG in 28 matches, nearly seven goals more than the second best side Liverpool.
Their supremacy doesn’t just stop in attack, and they have also been the best defensive side this season according to expected goals. They have conceded just 21.8 xG this season, and it is becoming harder and harder to see how they can be beaten.
Chelsea Expected Goals (xG)
Chelsea’s season took another turn for the worst last week as they were beaten 2-1 at Manchester United, meaning they are now two points outside of the top four. With Manchester City up next, it is conceivable that they could be even further adrift at the end of the weekend.
Antonio Conte’s side were unfortunate to lose at Old Trafford, as they created the better of the chances (xG: MUN 1.3 – 1.8 CHE). It was a good display from Conte’s team, but those kind of performances haven’t been frequent enough this term.
Chelsea have struggled in attack this season, and as can be seen in the image above, they are outside the top five attacking teams in the division on our stats. Their last five games has seen them concede 6.6 xG, and Conte may need to re-think his strategy ahead of his side’s visit to the Etihad.
Manchester City are expected to be too strong in this match, and their supreme attack can create plenty of problems for Chelsea’s shaky defence. With a price of around the 8/13 mark to win the game, City are quite short from a betting perspective, so taking a chance on over 2.5 goals at 13/10 makes most appeal here.
Manchester City to win and over 2.5 goals @ 13/10
Manchester City to win 3-1 @ 10/1