Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid Preview: Atletico to edge cagey affair

Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid match preview. Infogol’s Analyst uses expected goals data to generate the best bets for La Liga’s big Sunday game.


Sevilla Expected Goals (xG)

Sevilla were left frustrated in midweek by Manchester United and David de Gea, as they were held to a goalless draw in the Champions League (xG: SEV 2.0 – 0.5 MUN), the first time they have failed to score at home in the competition (19 matches).

In terms of La Liga, back to back wins over Girona (1-0) and Las Palmas (2-1) have moved them into fifth place, just seven points off the top four. They have, in actual fact, been only the ninth-best team according to Infogol’s expected goals table, and their overall process needs improvement if they are to make a surge into the Champions League places.

They have been generating a host of chances in matches since Vincenzo Montella was appointed as manager at the end of December, 13.8 xG in seven matches, but coming up against one of the best defences in Europe may change that.

Infogol Expected Goals table ahead of  La Liga GW25


Atletico Madrid Expected Goals (xG)

Atletico Madrid still have aspirations of catching Barcelona, only seven points behind the leaders at the time of writing. They have only lost once in La Liga this season, and have conceded just nine goals in 24 matches, an impressive record.

The underlying stats, though, suggest they haven’t been as impressive as the league table indicates. According to the chances they have allowed, they should have conceded closer to 27 goals (26.9 xG) – almost three times the actual amount they have.

Recent games have shown improvements in their process though, with the return of Diego Costa increasing their attacking threat and a younger, fresher starting XI meaning they are close to the Atletico team we are more familiar with. 11 clean sheets in 14 league games shows this, and in their last five matches they are conceding an average of just 0.6 xG per game, the lowest in the league in that time.



Atletico Madrid are expected to concede few chances once again. The visitors are the better of the two teams overall, and whilst they may not be convincing in their victories, they do grind out wins. Another one is forecast here.

Recommended Bets:

Under 2.5 Goals @ 4/6

Atletico Madrid to win @ 13/10


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