Gremio vs Ponte Preta: Betting Preview
Gremio vs Ponte Preta betting tips. Second place Gremio take on struggling Ponte Preta in Brazil’s Serie A, looking to keep pace with leaders Corinthians. Infogol’s Analyst takes a look at the game, using unique stats and data points to select the best bets.
After a great start to the season, Gremio have been off the boil in recent games in terms of their results, but their performances have been consistent throughout this rocky patch in which they lost three straight games.
Gremio ended this three match losing streak in midweek by beating in-form Flamengo 1-0 in Rio. It was a result that moved them back up to second in the table and slightly closer to the leaders Corinthians. They were fortunate to get the win against Flamengo though, as they managed just 4 shots in the entire game, amounting to just 0.11 xG – their worst attacking display of the season so far. Infogol calculates that, from the chances each team created, Gremio would win this match just 2% of the time.
Lucky to get the win – Shot map Flamengo vs Gremio
This sort of performance has been a rarity in a season which they have impressed on so many levels, being top of the expected table and leading the way in expected goals for (xGF) suggesting they are creating a lot of high-quality chances, and the best expected goals against (xGA) showing that they rarely concede high-quality chances to their opponents.
Gremio looking to kick-on
On an expected goal basis, Gremio have been by far the best team in the league so far this season, so don’t be surprised to see them go on a good run of form and reign Corinthians in somewhat over the next few weeks.
Ponte Preta sit in the bottom half of the table after 13 matches, and just three points above the relegation zone after an unimpressive start to the season. They have won just four of their matches so far, none of which have come away from home.
They are without a win in four matches heading into this game, but were very unfortunate last time out against Bahia, a game in which they lost 3-0. Ponte Preta created some great chances in that match, totalling 2.29 xG, with Infogol calculating just a 10% chance of them failing to hit the net.
Ponte Preta need improvement
They have one of the lowest expected goal for (xGF) total in the league, and if you take penalties out of the equation, they have the second lowest, averaging just 0.9 xG per match – something they will need to improve on as the season progresses.
In terms of defending, they haven’t been bad but have shown in individual matches that they are vulnerable and do concede high-quality chances. This is expected to be a tough match for them against one of the best teams in the league, so they will have to be at their best.
The home team have been very impressive so far this season, and have been unfortunate not to have gained more points than they already have, creating plenty of chances on a regular basis. They are expected to get the win in this match, and keep Ponte Preta at bay in the process.
Gremio to win @ 1/2
Both teams to score @ 4/6
Luan to score first @ 4/1