Flamengo vs Fluminense Match Preview
The Flu-Fla derby takes place in midweek, with both Flamengo and Fluminense in desperate need of a win for differing reasons. Flamengo are seventh after a poor run of form, while Fluminense are just a point above the drop zone. Infogol’s Analyst will aim to use underlying expected goals (xG) stats to produce the best bets for the big game.
Flamengo are in very poor form coming into this game, winning just four of their last 14 league games, and losing in the Copa do Brasil final on penalties in that time too. They have been unlucky in that time though, and should have picked up more points than they have done based on each individual performance.
They have collected just 16 points in the aforementioned 14 matches, with Infogol calculating that, from their performances, they should have collected nearer 24 points – almost eight points difference. If they had gained the points as expected, they would be just eight points behind Corinthians in second, and have just been unfortunate.
Also another good indicator of quality of performance is goal difference. In actual terms, they have scored 15 and conceded 17 in their last 14 games, meaning a goal difference of -2. In expected goals, they have generated 23.5xG and conceded just 14.9xG – an expected goal difference (xGD) of ~8.6xG. Infogol calculates a 95% chance that Flamengo would have scored more than the 15 goals they have in 14 matches – so, again, emphasising how unfortunate they have been. If they continue with the same process, expect results to take a turn for the better – maybe even starting with this match.
Fluminense are on an even worst run of form than their city rivals, as they have won just three of their last 17 league games. They have picked up 17 points in that time, and it is a run that has seen them crash down the table and now sit in an uncomfortable position just above the relegation zone.
They have been inconsistent in their performances all season so far, playing well in one match and then being very poor in the following. One thing that has been consistent is the fact that they concede a lot of good chances to their opponents. In the last 17 games, they have conceded 21 goals, and have been fortunate to concede just that amount, with their expected goals against (xGA) total for the same period being nearly 30 (29.5xG).
In this 17 game stretch, their goal difference is -3, while their expected goal difference (xGD) is -10.4, so over this run of games they have been one of the worst teams in the league. They need a big performance and a big result in this match, but with the way both teams are trending, it is hard to see that happening.
Flamengo have been playing well and have been unlucky, while Fluminense have been playing poorly and have got the results they deserve. The team that has been playing well is the one expected to win this match, and look good value to do so.
Flamengo to win @ 4/6
Flamengo to win 2-0 @ 13/2