Liverpool to come out on top: Everton vs Liverpool

The Merseyside derby is the Premier League’s early kick off, with Goodison Park playing host to Everton vs Liverpool. Infogol’s Analyst uses expected goals (xG) to generate the best insight and betting tips.

Everton Expected Goals (xG)

Everton were beaten 3-1 by Manchester City last time out, a game in which they were second best throughout (xG: EVE 1.1 – 1.6 MCI). That was their third defeat in five matches, and they now look set for a mid-table finish.

The Toffee’s main issue continues to be defensively, and even Sam Allardyce has failed as of yet to improve them in that department. Allardyce has overseen 18 league games as Everton manager, and his side have conceded 28.7 xG in that time, an average of 1.6 xG per game. This is a figure that they need to improve upon moving forward. 

Since Everton appointed Allardyce, they have the seventh best points tally in the league. This doesn’t tell the whole story though, as based on performances, they have been the eleventh best team. So with Everton’s process poor and the fans unhappy with the style of play, a defeat in this game could be costly for Allardyce.

 

Liverpool Expected Goals (xG)

Liverpool come into this game on the back of a sensational win against Manchester City in the first leg of their Champions League quarter-final, winning 3-0 at Anfield in a very impressive all-round display (xG: LIV 1.6 – 0.6 MCI).

The Reds last Premier League game was a 2-1 win over Crystal Palace, though they were fortunate to get the win in that game (xG: CRY 2.0 – 1.8 LIV). Despite this fortunate result, Liverpool have still been the second best team in the league this season, based on performances and chances created.

Infogol's Premier League expected goals table

Jurgen Klopp’s team have been the second best attacking side in the league this season, generating 68.5 xG in 32 games, averaging 2.1 xG per game. They will be looking forward to facing this defensively weak Everton team, even without star player Mohamed Salah, who is a doubt.

Conclusion

Liverpool are the better team by a long way, and are excellent value to win this game, with Betfair giving them a 52% chance and Infogol suggesting that they have a 62% chance. Given how regularly Everton surrender good chances, over 2.5 goals also represents value.

 

Recommended Bets:

Liverpool to win @ 10/11

Over 2.5 goals @ 17/20

 

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