Home wins expected for Barnsley and Hull: Championship Best Bets
Following a successful fourfold in midweek, Infogol’s Analyst returns with another Championship best bets article. Using expected goals (xG), the Analyst generates the best tips from the 3pm kick-offs.
Barnsley to edge relegation six pointer
Barnsley vs Bolton
A huge relegation clash at Oakwell, as third from bottom Barnsley take on Bolton, who sit just one place and two points above their hosts, having played a game more. Barnsley remained in the bottom three following a 1-0 defeat to Ipswich in midweek, but have been playing well, with their performances warranting more than results suggest.
They have actually been the 16th best team in the league, so are unfortunate to be so deeply involved in a relegation battle. Jose Morais’ side have generated 9 xG in their last six matches (+1 xGD), so their process is good, standing them in good stead ahead of such a crucial game.
Bolton have lost their last four matches in the league, with their attacking output drying up of late. They have averaged 0.9 xGF and 1.8 xGA over that period, so something has to change if they are to get anything from this game.
They have been the second worst team in the league this season, and have the second worst defensive process (67.2 xG). The home side can take advantage of this, and they look a good bet to get the win.
Derby to add to Burton misery
Burton vs Derby
Burton were thumped 5-0 at home by Hull in midweek, a result that leaves them winless in nine games. They are seven points from safety, and have been by far the worst team in the Championship this season.
That defeat to Hull was another extremely poor defensive display (xG: BUR 0.5 – 3.4 HUL), and Nigel Clough’s side have conceded 12 xG in their last four matches, and have been incredibly fortunate to get two points in that time.
Derby were beaten in midweek by Wolves, a game in which they created very little (xG: WOL 1.0 – 0.2 DER). Before that game they had won their last two, though, with this min-revival maintaining their place in the play-off places, for now.
Derby have been only the 10th best team in the league, but have plenty of quality in their side and have averaged 1.4 xG per game this season. Garry Rowett’s side are expected to be too strong in this match, and look a good bet to get the win.
Infogol's Championship xG table
Few goals at City Ground
Forest vs Ipswich
Nottingham Forest’s season has well and truly fizzled out, with a 1-0 defeat against Brentford in midweek extending their winless run to six matches. They were unfortunate to lose that game, though they never looked like winning it either, as both sides struggled to create chances (xG: FOR 0.7 – 0.7 BRE).
Aitor Karanka’s side have failed to score in their six match winless run. While they have been unlucky not to have hit the net at least once (5.5 xG), they are averaging a lowly 0.9 xG per game, so improvements in their attacking process are needed.
Ipswich deservedly beat Barnsley in midweek (xG: IPS 1.3 – 1.0 BAR), but after the game Mick McCarthy walked away from his position as manager. Ipswich have over-performed, both last season and this, and are the third worst team in the league.
With Ipswich unable to go up or down, performances have worsened. They have failed to score in five of their last seven matches, and they too are averaging less than 1 xG per game, so few goals between these sides looks a sensible bet.
Tigers to tame Owls
Hull vs Sheffield Wednesday
Hull are finishing the season very strongly, winning four and losing just one of their last seven matches. A 5-0 thrashing of Burton in one of their best attacking performances of the season so far (xG: BUR 0.5 – 3.4 HUL) moved them above their opponents in this game and into 16th.
They have generated 13.5 xG in those seven games, conceding just 9.4, showing just how well they have performed. Nigel Adkins has his side heading in the right direction, and if they maintain this process, they should create plenty of chances in this match.
Sheffield Wednesday have been very inconsistent of late, winning three in a row before losing their last two. Wins against Leeds and Preston were fortunate as Jos Luhukay’s side were second best (xG: LEE 2.1 – 1.8 SHW, SHW 1.8 – 2.3 PNE), and defeats to Fulham and QPR were well deserved (xG: SHW 0.2 – 2.3 FUL, QPR 2.3 – 1.3 SHW).
One thing that can be seen from the xG totals above is how poor Wednesday have been defensively. They have conceded an average of 2 xG per game in their last five matches, and won’t be looking forward to playing this Hull side. The Tigers look great value to win again.
Barnsley vs Bolton - Back Barnsley to win @ 10/11
Burton vs Derby - Back Derby to win @ 3/4
Nottingham Forest vs Ipswich - Back Under 2.5 goals @ 8/11
Hull vs Sheffield Wednesday - Hull to win @ 3/4