Coritiba vs Bahia – Big Match Betting Preview

Coritiba vs Bahia Betting Tips. High-flying Coritiba host newly-promoted Bahia in this week’s big match. Infogol’s Analyst takes a look at the game, using stats and data to select the best bets.





Coritiba have made a fine start to the season under Pachequinho, picking up 13 points from a possible 18. They have won all three of their home matches so far, beating Atletico Goianiense, Atletico Paranaense and Champions Palmeiras at Estadio Major Antonio Couto Pereira.


The season has started well for Coritiba 


They have the joint best defensive record in the league thus far, conceding only four goals, but have been slightly lucky in that sense having conceded 6.2 xG (7th best in league). That defensive record coupled, with consistent finishing of chances, is what sees them sit third in the table after six matches.


 Keeping things tight: Coritiba don’t concede high-quality chances 


Their last two home games have resulted in 1-0 wins, which have both been tight affairs in which both teams struggled to create many chances. They have been slightly fortunate in certain matches to get the three points, but they deserve to be near the top of the table, as Infogol has them as the sixth best team in the league so far this season – according to performances to date.


Infogol’s Actual vs Expected table – Coritiba deservedly near the top (table on the app) 


There is no question that Coritiba will be hard to beat in this match, and with the way they have been playing at home so far this season, they could well maintain their 100% record.




Bahia have made a positive start since returning to the Campeonato, winning three of their opening six matches. They are yet to pick up any points away from home this season, losing to Vasco da Gama, Botafogo and Gremio on their travels.


They appear to be a different team at home though, where they have consistently created plenty of chances and average 2.15 xG per game. Compare that to their away performances where they have struggled to generate high-probability chances, averaging just 0.90 xG. And it is the same story with the chances they have conceded so far, more away from home than at home – which doesn’t bode well heading into this match.


Travel sickness? Bahia Home and Away xG figures 


They were comfortably beaten in their most recent match away at Gremio, a game in which the xG trends continued, as they created very little and conceded some good chances, in the end having only a 12% probability of winning.




Though Bahia have made a promising start to the campaign, their performances away from home are concerning, and with how strong Coritiba have been at home, another win is expected for the Coxa-Branca. This will be a tight match though, with few goals between the teams.



Coritiba @ 17/20

Under 2.5 @ 4/6 

Coritiba win to nil @ 15/8





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