Championship GW12 Review
It was another entertaining weekend of Championship football, with one away win, five draws and six home wins. Infogol’s Analyst has reviewed the weekend’s games, using underlying expected goals stats to assess whether a performance justified the result.
Leeds have now lost their last three league games after going down 1-0 at home to Reading. Modou Barrow’s goal was enough for the three points, with a late Pablo Hernandez penalty miss proving decisive. Even excluding the penalty, Leeds were unfortunate to lose this game, having conceded few quality chances in the 90 minutes. This was the most ‘unfair’ result of the Championship weekend, but Reading gained a much needed win.
Derby’s 2-0 win over rivals Nottingham Forest was also an ‘unfair’ result, as the game itself was very even, with both sides generating a similar quality of chances. An early goal immediately put Forest on the back foot, and an early second-half goal meant Derby could just sit in and defend. Both teams were in need of a win, and a tight cagey game reflected this.
Norwich impressed against Hull without getting all three points, with a very late Nelson Oliveira equaliser getting them the least they deserved. They generated a host of chances throughout the game, and good quality ones at that, exposing defensive frailties of Leonid Slutsky’s team. This point extends their unbeaten run to seven games though, as they move up to eighth.
Birmingham got their first win under Steve Cotterill on Friday night, beating then-league leaders Cardiff 1-0 in a game of very few chances. Neither team generated very many opportunities in what was a dull game with a Che Adams goal the difference between the teams. Brentford edged out Millwall in what was a very entertaining game with both teams generating plenty of chances. The Bees had to ride their luck though, with Lee Gregory missing a late penalty in order to get just their second win of the season.
Bolton got their first win of the season by beating Sheffield Wednesday in what was a really entertaining game with both teams having a host of chances. The Owls were very unfortunate to come away empty handed though. Sheffield United beat Ipswich to continue their great start to the season in a game of very few chances, while Barnsley drew 2-2 at home to Middlesbrough.
Sunderland’s wait for a win goes on after a deserved 1-1 draw with QPR while Fulham needed a late equaliser at home to Preston. Bristol City shared a goalless draw with Burton on Friday, with the ‘fairest’ result of the weekend being Wolves’ 2-0 win over Aston Villa, an impressive display that meant they climbed to the top of the table.
GW13 Team to Back – Brentford
Brentford have been impressive of late, and have gained more results that their performances have deserved. They face a struggling Sunderland team next up, and look a good price at 4/5 to get the win.