Championship GW11 Review
Cardiff remain top despite drawing at home, while Sheffield Wednesday comfortably beat Leeds and both Bolton and Burton lose again – just another entertaining weekend of Championship football! Infogol’s Analyst reviews the action, assessing performances and not just results to gain a greater understanding of each individual match.
Fulham’s 2-1 win in their London derby against QPR was the week’s most ‘unfair’ result, as the home side generated the better of the chances. Fulham rode their luck but did concede only low-probability efforts on goal, with a draw being the fairest result.
Reading were beaten 2-1 at home by Norwich in a game which neither team created a lot of chances. Norwich generated just 0.3 xG, with InfoGol calculating they had just a 3.3% chance of scoring two from the chances they created, so Reading can count themselves unfortunate.
Bristol City continued their good run of form with an away win against Ipswich, though neither team created a lot of chances. They were slightly fortunate to come away with the three points, but they remain unbeaten in nine matches. Hull thumped Birmingham 6-1 to end a run of five without a win, though they were fortunate to score as many as they did from the chances they created.
Preston were held 2-2 by Sunderland at Deepdale in what was an entertaining game, though the visitors were unfortunate to come away with just one point after a solid performance. Middlesbrough also drew 2-2 in GW11, drawing with Brentford in a game where the away team had the better of the chances and were unlucky not to come away with all three points.
Forest edged out Sheffield United 2-1 in a tight game which both teams had chances, while Sheffield Wednesday bounced back from back-to-back defeats with a comfortable victory over Yorkshire rivals Leeds. They were impressive in that win, just as Leeds were disappointing, and will look to kick on now. Cardiff and Derby deservedly drew 0-0 as neither team created many opportunities.
Barnsley put in a good attacking performance against Millwall to gain an invaluable 3-1 away win. Wolves thumped Burton on their travels too, winning 4-0 after a comfortable afternoon. Aston Villa made it four wins on the spin against Bolton, leaving the newly-promoted side winless after 11 matches.
GW12 Team to Back – Wolves
Wolves have been very impressive so far this season, and have the highest expected goal difference (xGD), and expected goals for (xGF) in the division. They host Aston Villa in GW12, and whilst Villa are in good form and are playing well, their recent strength of schedule has been kind. At a price of Evens, Wolves look good value.