Brazil Serie A GW6 Review
Using underlying performance data, Infogol’s Analyst takes a look at the action from GW6 of Brazil's Serie A, looking at performances and not just results to establish who deserved their result and who may have been fortunate.
Actual vs Expected Goal Totals for GW6
Corinthians beat local rivals Sao Paulo 3-2 in an enthralling match, to keep them top of the table after six matches. It was a game with plenty of chances at either end, but one which the home team deservedly won, generating 2.76 xG. Wellington Nem’s late strike set up a nervy final few minutes, but Corinthians managed to hold on.
Corinthians manager Fabio Carille pleased with his team’s start to the season
Gremio and Cruzeiro registered deserved home wins against Bahia and Atletico Goianiense respectively, both winning without conceding. Gremio needed a late goal to get the three points, which came courtesy of Bruno Cortez in the 86th minute, leaving them in second place. A Ramon Abila double helped Cruzeiro cruise to victory, in what was an impressive performance, both in defence and attack.
Vitoria and Vasco da Gama both picked up home wins, deservedly edging tight contests. Vitoria added to Atletico Mineiro’s woes with a 2-0 win, their first victory of the season, in a game of very few high-quality chances. Vasco were a little more comfortable, leading 2-0 in injury time only to concede a late penalty, which made the score-line look better from a Sport Recife point of view.
There were two draws in GW6, with Botafogo sharing the spoils with Coritiba, and Avai being held by Flamengo. Botafogo conceded very few non-penalty chances in their game against Coritiba, but conceded two penalties which were dispatched by Kleber and Almeida, as Coritiba extended their good start to the season. Avai and Flamengo was a game of very few chances, with the teams sharing just 1.38 xG between them, with a draw a fair result.
Things not going right for Atletico Paranaense
Atletico Paranaense prop up the table after six matches, as they were beaten 2-0 at home by Santos. It was a tight game, with both teams taking a cautious approach, creating very few chances. The visitors deserved to edge the match, and Paranaense’s poor run was extended.
Palmeiras ended a four match winless run by picking up three points against Fluminense, although they were slightly fortunate to score the three that they did. They generated just 1.09 xG, with Infogol calculating only a 9.8% chance of this happening.
Chapecoense were beaten for the second time in succession at the weekend, losing to Ponte Preta in a high-scoring game. They were once again unfortunate to come away empty handed though, as another solid defensive performance was unrewarded.
Ponte Preta vs Chapecoense: Shot-map
They conceded just five shots amounting to 0.4 xG, of which Ponte Preta scored three goals. Similar to last week against Gremio, Chapecoense’s performance deserved more, with only a 13% chance of them losing this match according to the chances both teams created. The probability of Ponte Preta scoring three times from 0.4 xG was just 0.8%.
Ponte Preta vs Chapecoense: Percentage chance of scoring (x) from xG created
GW7 Team to Watch – Chapecoense
Chapecoense having been unfortunate in their last two matches, with the percentage chance of them conceding nine from the xG they have faced at just 0.5%, and are the team to watch in GW7. Their performances have been very consistent so far this season, with a solid defence the most important factor of their success, and though they haven’t got good results in recent matches, their level of performance hasn’t wavered, and so they are expected to bounce back in GW7.