Brazil Serie A GW4 Review
Infogol’s Analyst reviews game week four in Brazil’s Serie A, looking at performances and not just results, to establish who deserved their result and who may have been fortunate.
Actual vs Expected Goal Totals for GW4
Chapecoense continue to lead the way in Brazil’s Serie A after another good victory, this time away at Cruzeiro. They took a two goal-lead early in the second half and weathered a storm but were never really in trouble. They have surprised everyone so far this, with a solid defence the main contributor to their success – they have conceded just 2.32 expected goals (xG) so far this season, the lowest in the league.
Corinthians kept hot on their heels with a win of their own against Santos, a game in which they conceded very few chances in a deserved 1-0 victory. Fluminense also gained a home win against Vitoria, a 2-1 triumph in which they were good value for the three points. Gremio put in a great performance as they comfortably beat Vasco da Gama, a game in which they were dominant from start to finish. They created 1.8 xG while conceding only 0.54 in what was a dominant display.
Bahia put in the performance of the week, beating lowly Atletico Goianiense 3-0. They were comfortable throughout and created plenty of high-quality chances, totalling 2.27 xG – conceding just 0.35 xG.
Performance of GW4: Bahia comfortable winners
Ponte Preta, Avai and Coritiba all picked up 1-0 home wins, but all were slightly fortunate to edge very tight matches, as none of them created many good chances. Coritiba created just 0.45 xG against Atletico PR, Avai just 0.75 xG against Sport Recife and Ponte Preta just 0.33 xG against Sao Paulo, with the latter having just a 17% chance of winning of winning that game.
Ponte Preta vs Sao Paulo: Percentage chance of winning according to xG created
Palmeiras and Flamengo were both frustrated in their matches, having to settle for goalless draws at home against Atletico Mineiro and Botafogo respectively. Palmeiras can rue a first half missed penalty as the reason they didn’t collect all three points, as they never looked threatened by a weak Mineiro attack. Flamengo missed some big chances in the Clássico da Rivalidade, meaning they remain unbeaten but with only six points having drawn three.
GW5 Team to Watch – Fluminense
Fluminense were dominant against Vitoria in their last game, creating plenty of chances while conceding very few (only 0.25 xG). They have the second best attacking record so far this season (according to xG), and can cause a weak Paranaense team plenty of problems in their next match.