Brazil Serie A GW26 Review

Corinthians’ lead at the top now just eight points, while things at the bottom get even tighter after GW26. There were just 19 goals last weekend, suggesting most matches were tight, Infogol’s Analyst will review the action and assess the fairness of the results.


Actual vs Expected Goal (xG) totals Brazil Serie A GW26


The most ‘unfair’ result of the weekend came in Curitiba, as Atletico Mineiro ran out 2-0 winners against Atletico Paranaense. The away side generated very few quality scoring chances, all of which amounted to just 0.35 xG, with Infogol calculating that they had just 5% chance of scoring two.


Robinho double downs Paranaense 


Avai’s first defeat in seven matches was an ‘unfair’ one, as they went down to Atletico Goianiense. A 2-0 defeat was harsh as both teams generated a similar amount of chances and xG, with both teams having the same probability of scoring two from the chances they created (~34%), suggesting an element of good fortune.


Vasco da Gama put in a dominant performance against Chapecoense only to come away with just a point. They drew 1-1 in Rio despite generating a host of good chances totalling 2.83 xG, giving them a 77% chance of scoring more than the one they did – so were unfortunate not to get the win.


Santos and Ponte Preta both won 1-0 against Palmeiras and Flamengo respectively, though both were fortunate to collect all three points in what were very even games. Sao Paulo too won 1-0 against Sport Recife to move out of the relegation places, with sport taking their place. They too were fortunate to get the win in what was another very close game.


Sao Paulo finally out of relegation zone


Cruzeiro drew with Corinthians on the weekend of their Copa do Brasil success, but were fortunate to come away with a point after a very below-par performance by their standards – creating very few high-quality chances. Gremio’s result was slightly ‘fairer’, but they were still unfortunate not to win by a wider margin against a struggling Fluminense as they generated a lot of chances.


Bahia’s draw with Coritiba and Vitoria’s late win over Botafogo were the ‘fairest’ results of GW26. The 1-1 draw in Salvador keeps Coritiba in the bottom four, but it was a deserved result as neither team did enough to take the spoils. Vitoria scored in the 90th and 95th minute to secure a 3-2 win and keep themselves above the relegation zone. They just about deserved the win in that match, and in the process ended Botafogo’s four match winning streak.


GW27 Team to BackVitoria

Vitoria were impressive in victory over Botafogo and their recent performances have been very good. They face a struggling Sport Recife in GW27 who haven’t won in nine matches, and the home team look a good bet at 11/10.


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