Brazil Serie A GW25 Review

Leaders Corinthians were held in GW25, giving hope to the teams below them. Meanwhile, there are just 10 points separate the bottom 12 teams in what is a tight relegation scrap. Infogol’s Analyst reviews the weekend’s action, looking at performances and not just results to see who deserved what they got and who were fortunate. 


Actual vs Expected Goal (xG) totals Brazil Serie A GW25


Vitoria gained another away win against strong opposition by beating Atletico Mineiro 3-1 in GW25, a win which saw them once again climb out of the relegation places. Their win was fortunate though, and was the most ‘unfair’ result of the weekend, due to the fact that the home team generated the better (and more) chances over the 90 minutes.


Bahia’s 1-0 win over Gremio was also an ‘unfair’ result for a similar reason, that Gremio generated a lot of good chances. The visitors were unfortunate, and it was a result that saw them slip to third in the table and 11 points adrift of Corinthians.


Gremio hitting a rocky patch


Flamengo were held to a 1-1 draw by Avai at the weekend, with the home team unfortunate not to get all three points having generated over 3 expected goals (xG). Flamengo had an 82% chance of scoring more than the one goal they did. Avai are now unbeaten in seven matches, and their process remains poor, so don’t expect them to keep getting results.


Chapecoense and Santos both registered home wins in what were tight matches. Chape beat Ponte Preta 1-0 in a game of few chances, while Santos beat Atletico Paranaense in a game which both teams had good opportunities.


Cruzeiro kept their good run of form going with a victory away at bottom side Atletico Goianiense, though they were second best in terms of expected goals (xG) for the first time in a while. They continue to generate good opportunities though, and are a dangerous team. Atletico GO remain in trouble and in desperate need of wins.


Cruzeiro win again


Sao Paulo drew 1-1 with leaders Corinthians meaning they remain in the relegation places, while their rivals remain top. Palmeiras deservedly beat Fluminense after another solid display, while Botafogo maintained their good run of form with a 3-2 win away at Coritiba. Sport Recife and Vasco da Gama shared the spoils in what was the ‘fairest’ result of GW25.


GW26 Team to BackFlamengo

Flamengo have been generating a lot of good chances with their process being impressive in recent weeks. They have been unfortunate not to have picked up more points than they have and are expected to finish the season strongly. They face a struggling Ponte Preta side in GW26, and look a good price at 6/4 to get the three points.


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