Brazil GW24 Review
Corinthians back to winning ways at home, as their closest challengers slip up, while Sao Paulo get a much needed three points in what was another intriguing weekend of Brazilian football. Infogol’s Analyst reviews the action, using expected goals (xG) to assess performances and not just results to paint a clearer picture of the week’s matches, including selecting a Team to Back next time.
Gremio, who are the closest challengers to Corinthians suffered a surprise home defeat to Chapecoense that saw them slip 10 points behind the league leaders. This 1-0 loss was the most ‘unfair’ result of the GW24, as neither team generated many chances, so neither had a high chance of winning the match – a draw would’ve been a ‘fair’ result. In the end, it was a deflected effort that was the difference between the two teams in what was a very dull match.
Bottom side Atletico Goianiense got their third win in five matches as they look to claw themselves to safety. They are now just five points from safety after a 3-1 win away at Ponte Preta, though they were fortunate to get all three points. The xG was very even in the match, with Goianiense having just a 10% chance of scoring three from the chances they created. They have been fortunate to get as many points as they have in their last five matches, and with an expected goal difference (xGD) in that time of -3.6xG, need to improve their process if they are to survive – as their results aren’t sustainable.
Sao Paulo won the relegation six-pointer at the weekend against Vitoria, meaning that they moved to fourth from bottom and in the relegation places on goal-difference only. They were very fortunate to get the win though, in what was a very even game with both teams having good chances.
Botafogo ended Santos’ 13 match unbeaten run with a 2-0 win in Rio, a deserved win after another impressive display from A Estrela Solitária. Atletico Paranaense also registered a home win, beating Fluminense 3-1 in an entertaining game to extend their good run of form, while Flu continue to be inconsistent. Mineiro were held by Avai in a game both teams had some decent chances. Avai are now unbeaten in six matches, but their process has been very poor in that time (xGD = -4.7xG).
Flamengo, Corinthians, Cruzeiro and Palmeiras all won to nil in GW24 after impressive and dominant performances, beating Sport Recife (2-0), Vasco da Gama (1-0), Bahia (1-0) and Coritiba (1-0) respectively.
GW25 Team to Back – Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro continue to be very consistent in creating plenty of chances, and conceding few, so are always fancied to get a result. They face bottom side Atletico GO in GW25, who have been fortunate of late, and Cruzeiro look a good bet at 6/4 to get another win.