Brazil Serie A GW19 Review

GW19 of Brazil’s Serie A came to an end with two dull goalless draws on Sunday. Using expected goals (xG), Infogol’s Analyst takes a look at the action, assessing performances and not just results. The Analyst will aim to paint a clearer picture of the week’s matches, including selecting a Team to Back for GW20.


Actual vs Expected Goal (xG) totals GW19


Vitoria caused a big upset by beating Flamengo in GW19, a deserved result after a fantastic performance. They took the lead before withstanding pressure from their hosts, but put the game to bed with a second-half penalty. Disappointment for Flamengo who have now fallen 18 points behind Corinthians.


There were deserved home wins for Bahia, Coritiba and Gremio, who beat Sao Paulo, Chapecoense and Atletico Mineiro respectively. Bahia beat an in form Sao Paulo team thanks to two quick-fire goals in the first half, moving them four points clear of the drop-zone. Coritiba did just enough to edge past Chapecoense in a game of few chances, while Gremio were dominant against Mineiro, their xG total made to look even by a last minute Mineiro penalty – which was missed by Robinho.


Mineiro remain just four points above the drop-zone 


Ponte Preta played out a goalless draw with Vasco da Gama, as did Avai and Santos. Ponte Preta’s match was a dull one, in which neither team created many chances – a deserved result. Avai, on the other hand, were unfortunate not to come away with all three points after a great display against Santos. They created a host of high-quality scoring opportunities but failed to take advantage.


Corinthians and Fluminense both registered 3-1 home wins in GW19, but both were fortunate to do so. Leaders Corinthians beat Sport Recife but had to weather a late barrage of pressure, as the visitors created some good chances. Corinthians themselves only had a small chance of scoring three from the chances they created, so again find themselves on the side of fortune. Fluminense’s match was similar in a sense that Flu were fortunate to score three from their chances, but they edged the game and deserved to come out on top.


Fluminense back to winning ways 


Two sides that can count themselves unlucky in GW19 are Cruzeiro and Palmeiras. Cruzeiro were held to a goalless draw by Botafogo, but once again generated a host of high-quality chances – a similar story to previous matches. Palmeiras were beaten 1-0 by Atletico Paranaense despite dominating proceedings and creating a host of chances. That brings to an end a five match unbeaten run, while this was Paranaense’s fifth 1-0 win in the league so far this season.


Cruzeiro’s process continues to be good


GW20 Team to Back – Vitoria


After an eye-catching result and performance away at Flamengo, Vitoria are the team to back in GW20. They are looking to make it three wins on the bounce, and at 3/4, look a good bet to do so.


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