Brazil Serie A GW15 Review

GW15 of the Brazilian Serie A came to an end in midweek, and things are hotting up at both the top and the bottom of the table. Infogol’s Analyst takes a look at the action, assessing performances and not just results (using expected goals (xG)). The Analyst will aim to paint a clearer picture of the week’s matches, including selecting a Team to Watch for GW15.


Actual vs Expected Goal (xG) totals GW15 


Corinthians lead at the top of the table has been reduced to just six points after they were held by struggling Avai in GW15, a game in which both teams had their chances to secure a win. The game finished goalless, meaning Corinthians still haven’t lost this season, but may find themselves looking over their shoulder in the coming weeks.


There were two more deserved draws in GW15, as Fluminense and Cruzeiro, and Atletico Paranaense and Botafogo all gained a share of the spoils. In Rio, both Fluminense and Cruzeiro created a host of chances and in the end a 1-1 score line was deserved. It finished goalless between Atletico Paranaense and Botafogo with neither team having any clear-cut chances – the story of their seasons so far.


Cruzeiro held again 


Ponte Preta and Sao Paulo both registered home wins, beating Coritiba and Vasco da Gama respectively, as they both gained much needed wins. Ponte Preta ended a five match winless run with this victory, a 4-0 thrashing in what was one of their best attacking displays of the season. Sao Paulo ended a nine match winless run thanks to an early Pratto goal, but still find themselves in the relegation zone after 15 games.


Second place Gremio cut Corinthians gap at the top thanks to a 3-1 victory over Vitoria, though they were very fortunate to score three from the chances they created (0.71 xG). Infogol calculates just a 3.5% chance of this happening, so Gremio can count themselves as lucky in this one.


Gremio fortunate: Percentage chance of scoring (x) from chances created 


The surprise result of the week came from Atletico Mineiro’s defeat at home to Bahia, a 2-0 defeat in which Mineiro created a host of chances but failed to take advantage mainly thanks to some great saves and last ditch defending. Bahia scored from a penalty and a long range screamer, but other than that they didn’t create a lot of chances and were very fortunate to win that game. Infogol calculates that Bahia, from the chances created, would have just a 19% chance of winning.


Mineiro suffer shock defeat 


Home wins for Santos and Sport Recife were also fortunate, as they got the better of Chapecoense and Atletico Goianiense respectively. In a game of very few high-quality chances, Santos were lucky to get the three points after a very tight game. Sport hit the net four times in their match against Atletico GO, from only 1.18 xG that they created, with Infogol calculating just a 3.2% chance of this happening – showing how fortunate they were – especially seen as Atletico created 1.5 xG themselves.


Flamengo and Palmeiras played out an entertaining 2-2 draw, a game in which Flamengo dominated and Palmeiras played on the break. The home team created a host of chances, 2.23 xG, and conceded very few chances, 0.68 xG, but Palmeiras took their opportunities in what was a very good counter attacking display.


Flamengo unlucky to have to settle for a point 


GW16 Team to WatchCruzeiro


Cruzeiro have been very consistent all season long with their performances, creating chances in every match, and this can continue in GW16 as they travel to Avai and look a good price.



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