Brazil Serie A GW14 Review

GW14 of the Brazilian Serie A has concluded, so the Infogol Analyst takes a look at the action, looking at performances and not just results (using expected goals (xG)). The Analyst will aim to paint a clearer picture of the week’s matches, including selecting a Team to Watch for GW14.


Actual vs Expected Goal (xG) totals GW14 


Gremio closed the gap on leaders Corinthians with a deserved 3-1 win at home to Ponte Preta, a game in which they created some good chances. It was a much improved performance following recent weeks, and they showed good spirit to come from a goal down and win so comfortably. Lucas Barrios helped himself to two goals, and will be hoping there will be more to come as Immortal Tricolour look to maintain their title challenge.


Palmeiras and Botafogo also secured deserved home wins by beating Vitoria and Sport Recife respectively. At Allianz Parque, Palmeiras registered a 4-2 victory in which they opened their opponents up at will. They created a lot of good chances in that match to bounce back from successive defeats, as they look to kick on up the table. Botafogo’s game with Sport was a little bit tighter, finishing 2-1, but the home team got the win thanks to Guilherme winner.


Palmeiras looking to kick on 


Bahia and Avai shared the spoils in GW14, as did Vasco da Gama and Santos, as all four teams earned deserved points. Bahia slightly edged a tight game in Salvador, but never really created high-quality chances, opting to take their chances from distance. Vasco, playing behind closed doors at Botafogo’s stadium after what happened after their match with Flamengo, also slightly edged a close encounter, but they too didn’t do anywhere near enough to warrant all three points.


Leaders Corinthians’ lead at the top was cut after they were held 2-2 at home by Atletico Paranaense. That result brought to an end a five match winning streak – but they remain unbeaten. They were very unfortunate not to get all three points in that match though, with Infogol calculating they would win 81% of the time according to chances created by both teams. Another good attacking display is a positive though, as they look to be finding a level of consistency in their performances, as well as their results.


Corinthians frustrated 


Cruzeiro were also frustrated at home, drawing with Flamengo, but it was another good display from Raposa, as they limited their opponents to just 0.25 xG. They continue to be consistent with their performances, which should see them rise up the table.


Atletico Mineiro and Fluminense both registered away wins, but both were fortunate to come away with the spoils. Mineiro beat lowly Atletico Goianiense 2-1, but the game was very even, with both teams creating 1.10 xG, suggesting there was little between them. Fluminense beat Coritiba by the same score-line, but they created very little in terms of chances while conceding plenty. Infogol calculates they would win this game just 5% of the time – with their being just a 4% chance Flu would score two from the chances they generated.


Fluminense Fortunate finishing – Percentage chance of scoring (x) from xG created 


Chapecoense ended a six match winless run by beating Sao Paulo 2-0, a game in which they were very fortunate to collect all three points. They were second best on xG, accumulating just 0.42 xG, calculating at just a 6.5% chance they would score two goals from their chances. Sao Paulo can count themselves unlucky not to come away with something, but their season continues to go from bad to worse, and are now without a win in nine league matches.


GW15 Team to WatchGremio


Gremio look to be finding some form after a brief wobble, creating plenty of chances once again which makes them a very dangerous team. They need to continue to win matches to put pressure on Corinthians, and can do so once again in GW15.




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