Atletico Mineiro vs Sport Recife: Betting Preview

Atletico Mineiro vs Sport Recife Betting Tips. Two struggling sides meet in GW9, with Atletico Mineiro hosting Sport Recife in Belo Horizonte. Infogol’s Analyst takes a look at the game, using unique stats and data points to select the best bets.

 

 

Atletico Mineiro

  

Atletico Mineiro have had a poor start to the season by their standards, picking up just nine points from a possible 24, and winning just two of their opening matches. They find themselves already 11 points off the pace set by leaders Corinthians, but their performances have reflected their results, with Infogol calculating they are where they deserve to be.

 

Infogol’s Actual vs Expected table (on the app) 

 

Their only wins have come against Avai at home, and in their last game away at Sao Paulo. That last game was the first indication that Mineiro could be turning a corner, as they just shaded the match, and in the end deserved the three points.

 

Galo have struggled to generate high-quality chances so far this season, instead choosing to take their chances from distance. This is one of the reasons for their lack of success this term; they have taken 108 shots in eight matches so far, equating to 7.82 xG, meaning that their average chance has just a 7% probability of going in.

 

Distance shooting: Shot map of Atletico MG vs Atletico PR 

 

The worst culprits of this distance shooting are Romelu Otero and Juan Cazares, who have managed 13 and 15 shots respectively this season, with the aforementioned Otero average chance having just a 3.7% probability of hitting the net. Something Mineiro need to work on – creating higher quality chances.

  

One positive for Mineiro is that their defence looks to have improved in recent weeks, conceding 2.54 xG in their last three matches – which is by no means great – but is an improvement on their early season form.

 

Frustration: Robinho yet to have an impact this season 

 

Their big named players are yet to get going this season, with Robinho offering little, and Fred being out of recent squads. There is a lot to improve on, but Mineiro are now trending in the right direction and should begin being more consistent in both their performances and results.

 

Sport Recife

 

Sport Recife have also made a poor start to the season, winning just two of their opening eight matches, finding themselves in the bottom four thanks to an inferior goal difference. Their only wins so far this season have come at home, beating high-flying Gremio and Flamengo – though they were fortunate in both of those matches.

  

They have lost all three of their away matches so far this season, by an aggregate of 7-1, something they definitely need to improve on in the coming months. As seen in the graphic above (act vs exp table), Infogol calculates Sport Recife as being the worst team in the league so far this season based on game by game performances. Sport have been second best on xG in seven of their eight matches so far this season, and for this reason have the worst expected goal difference (xGD) in the league. 

 

Improvements needed for Sport 

 

According to xG, Leão da Ilha have the worst defensive record in the league this season, conceding 13.19 xG in their eight matches, so they have a lot to improve on. Just by looking at some of their shot-maps, it is easy to see that they concede a lot of high-quality chances to their opponents in matches.

 

Defensively vulnerable: Sport defence vs Vitoria 

 

Conclusion

 

Although Atletico Mineiro haven’t hit the heights of last season just yet, they face a Sport Recife team that Infogol suggests have been the worst team in the league this season. Sport have continuously shown a defensive frailty, and while Mineiro don’t create ‘high-quality’ chances regularly, the home team should get the win.

 

Bets

 

Atletico Mineiro win @ 40/85

Under 2.5 goals @ Evs 

Atletico Mineiro to win 1-0 @ 6/1

 

 

 

 

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