Atletico Madrid vs Valencia: Atletico to strengthen their grip on 2nd place
Infogol’s Analyst turns their attention to La Liga, where the big game of the weekend sees second place Atletico Madrid take on third place Valencia. As always, the Analyst has used underlying expected goals (xG) data to produce the best bets.
Atletico Madrid have got better as the season has gone on, moving from 12th in Infogol’s expected table up to third over the last 10 matches. Their process has improved and they have been generating more - and better - scoring chances, as they did last week against Las Palmas (ATL 2.7 – 0.6 LAS xG).
Diego Costa’s arrival has added something to Atleti, and not just in their yellow card accumulation. Injuries and suspensions thus far has limited his impact, but when he does play he improves the team.
Valencia have had a tough couple of weeks, with two defeats to Las Palmas and Real Madrid throwing their top four chances up in the air. Real Madrid and Villarreal are now hot on their heels, as their quick start looks to be a distant memory.
They were thumped 4-1 at the Mestalla by Real Madrid last week, and were outclassed throughout (VAL 1.7 – 3.0 RMA xG) – the same could happen in this match.
Over 2.5 goals @ 4/5
Atlético de Madrid will take some stopping in this game and it's doubtful that Valencia have the defensive quality to cope, with over 2.5 goals the selected bet.
Atletico Madrid @ 40/85
The home side are the better of the two teams, and they look good value at 40/85 to get a win that would move them nine points clear of their opponents in this match.