Another tight game: Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal Europa League Preview

Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal. After playing for 80 minutes with 10 men in the first leg, Atletico scored late to give take the advantage. Arsenal have it all to do, but can they succeed? Our Analyst has previewed the game, using expected goals (xG) to generate the best bets.

Atletico Madrid Expected Goals (xG)

Atletico Madrid were very much hampered at the Emirates after Sime Vrsaljko was dismissed after two yellow cards in the first 10 minutes of the match.

They rode their luck throughout that first leg, relying on the sort of defensive display we have become accustomed to in recent years, along with some great saves from Jan Oblak which denied Arsenal a second goal (xG: ARS 2.7 – 1.1 ATM).

Europa League xG/90 leaders 

Antione Griezmann was the man that capitalised on a defensive lapse to score in the first leg, and he has the second highest xG/90 of any player to play in the Europa League this term, averaging 0.9, so you can expect him to get at least one good chance in this second leg.

Diego Simeone will know that his side need to improve their performance if they are to qualify, but knows that their strength is in defence, and a clean sheet will see them through to the Europa League final.

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Arsenal Expected Goals (xG)

Arsenal were understandably disappointed to concede that late equaliser in the first leg, they now face the hard task of scoring at the Wanda Metropolitano, something that not many teams manage – in fact Atletico haven’t conceded in 11 home games.

Arsene Wenger couldn't have asked for more from his players in the first leg as they generated plenty of chances against 10-men.

Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid first leg shot-map

The departing manager opted to rest most of his players at the weekend against Manchester United, and as a result has no new injury concerns ahead of this one.

Based on their first leg performance, the Gunners have the capability to win this match and qualify,  but will find it extremely hard against a dogged Atleti team.

Conclusion

Atletico Madrid don’t concede goals at home. If they continue in this form they will qualify, and so another tight and low-scoring game is expected. Antione Griezmann has been very hot in the Europa League this season and is worth backing to score first.

Recommended Bets:

Under 2.5 goals @ 4/5

Antoine Griezmann to score first @ 11/4

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