Sterling to outshine Silva and co at the Etihad: The best bets for Sunday’s Premier League action

Arsenal and Manchester City feature among three Premier League matches on Sunday. Our Analyst previews the games, using expected goals (xG) to generate the best bets.

 

 

Arsenal vs West Ham

Sun 13.30 GMT

Live on Sky Sports Premier League

This appears to be a one-sided contest on paper at the Emirates, but the match may well have some more interest following Arsene Wenger’s announcement that he will leave the club at the end of the season.

Whether that will get more bums on seats is yet to be seen, though hopefully Wenger hasn’t completely sullied all of the good work that he achieved at Arsenal in his earlier years at the club.

One of the brighter sparks this season has been the performances of Alexandre Lacazette in his first season as a Gunner. He has notched 11 times in the league (12.29 xG), and is worth backing to score first if he begins the game, but has tended to start on the bench when Arsenal have a Europa League tie the following week. 

Arsenal's main Premier League goalscorers this season

As a result, it may pay to side with Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang to score anytime as he will likely lead the line, and he averages a Premier League goal every 124 minutes – the best ratio of the current Arsenal squad.

Arsenal were unlucky to lose at Newcastle last Sunday (xG: NEW 0.85 – 1.55 ARS), and have been in good form at home of late (won their last three, scoring three on each occasion). They are expected to see off a West Ham side with little to play for.

A crucial win against Southampton, plus successive 1-1 draws against Chelsea and Stoke (both slightly fortunate), means that West Ham are now six points clear of the relegation zone and are safe to all intents and purposes.

This fixture finished 3-0 to Arsenal last term and, with Wenger’s announcement likely to have raised spirits, a similar scoreline is expected. Aubameyang is likely to be Arsenal’s biggest threat and he’s taken to score anytime at 8/11.

Selection – Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang to score anytime @ 8/11

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Stoke City vs Burnley

Sun 13.30 GMT

Andy Carroll's late equaliser for West Ham saw Stoke drop two extremely valuable points at the London Stadium on Monday, a body blow to their hopes of Premier League survival.

They are predicted by Infogol to finish in their current position of 18th, with a woeful -33 GD making their task even harder.

Forecast positions at end of 2017/18 Premier League season

Paul Lambert’s team are now winless in nine matches since a 2-0 win over Huddersfield back in January and, crucially, have been too generous to opponents, conceding 18.26 xGA over the same period.

Sean Dyche's Burnley side will be seeking to bounce back from a warranted 2 - 1 defeat to Chelsea on Thursday (xG: BUR 0.50 - 2.14 CHE), a game that brought their five match winning streak to a halt.

However, the Clarets have shown their true mettle against lesser teams in the division; recent wins include victories against West Ham (3-0), West Brom (2-1) and Watford (2-1).

The Infogol model is at odds with the market as to who should be favoured and it is Burnley that are taken to win at a decent price.

Selection – Burnley to win v Stoke @ 5/2

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Manchester City v Swansea City

Sun 16.30 GMT

Live on Sky Sports Premier League

Much like the Arsenal match, this appears to be a one-sided contest on paper, with Manchester City expected to dominate.

Pep Guardiola’s side have carried all before them in the league this season, with even their recent lapse of concentration against city neighbours Man Utd an unjust result (xG: MNC 3.01 – 1.20 MNU).

City bounced back in fine style when beating a below-par Spurs at Wembley last weekend (xG: TOT 0.49 – 3.09 MNC), their 28th win in the league this term and a game in which Raheem Sterling again found the net. He’s now scored in two of City’s last three games and makes plenty of appeal to score first here with Sergio Aguero out of action following surgery.

Man City's main Premier League goalscorers this season

Visitors Swansea will know that they are not yet safe, but neither Stoke nor Southampton will catch them if all three teams continue on their current trajectory.

Swansea have picked up a point in their last two matches on the road – at Huddersfield and West Brom – but Carlos Carvalhal and his players will be well aware that their Premier League future will rely more on good performances in their three final matches; against Bournemouth, Swansea and Stoke.

With Swansea focusing on their run-in, it appears unlikely that they’ll have many answers to a rampant Man City side. Raheem Sterling can kick off the scoring.

Selection – Raheem Sterling to score first @ 7/2

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