Brazil Serie A GW3 Review
By looking at performances and not just results, Infogol looks at the third week of action in the Brazilian Serie A season, giving a ‘Team to Watch’ for next week’s matches.
Actual vs Expected Goal Totals for GW3
Chapecoense top the Brazilian Serie A table for the first time in their history after recording a 2-0 win against newly-promoted Avai. They were slightly fortunate to win as comfortably though, creating very little, but they once again showcased a solid defensive effort, conceding just 0.43 xG. They have the best defensive record in the league, conceding just 1.07 xG in three matches so far – a mean defence.
Tied at the top with Chapecoense are Cruzeiro and Corinthians, with both securing deserved 1-0 away wins against Santos and Atletico Goianiense respectively. Both teams looked comfortable in victory, limiting their opponents to very few chances.
Coritiba got over their late penalty miss last weekend to make it two wins from three by beating Vitoria, a game in which they dominated, creating the better chances and deserving the victory.
Atletico Paranaense are still winless after drawing 1-1 with Flamengo, a tight game which they just had the better of.
Gremio couldn’t make it three wins from three as they succumbed to defeat away at Sport Recife. After taking an early two goal lead, they failed to capitalise and lost 4-3, though they were very unfortunate. They conceded four goals from just 1.31 xG, with Infogol calculating a 4.4% chance of that happening, with Gremio avoiding defeat eight times out of ten.
Percentage chance of scoring (x) from xG created
Vasco da Gama left it very late to win ‘Classico dos Gigantes’ at the weekend, Nene popping up with the goal deep into injury time to seal a 3-2 win against rivals Fluminense. They were very fortunate to get the three points though, as the created only 1.04 xG – scoring from tight angles and a header – with only an 8.8% chance of scoring three. Fluminense didn’t create much themselves other than the two penalties, both dispatched by Dourado who has scored five in three, leaving these two on the same number of points after three games.
Sao Paulo won the ‘big match’ of the weekend, running out 2-0 winners against Palmeiras, with a Jean penalty miss proving costly for Porco. Sao Paulo were once again fortunate to score two from the chances they created, with two low-probability goals proving to be the difference.
Atletico Mineiro remain without a win in this season’s Serie A after drawing 2-2 with Ponte Preta, though it appears that they were fortunate to get all three points. They created just 0.47 xG, which would have given them just an 8.1% chance of scoring the two they did. They definitely haven’t hit the heights they were expected to just yet.
xG shot-map of Botafogo vs Bahia
Bahia were deservedly edged out by Botafogo at the weekend, but were not disgraced. They gave their hosts a tough game, creating some good chances including one guilt-edge chance that fell to Edigar Junio, who failed to make count.
GW4 Team to watch – Bahia
They gave Botafogo a real scare in GW3, and have looked a very capable team. They host fellow promoted side Avai, who have been struggling, in GW4 and can make it back-to-back home wins after thrashing Atletico Paranaense 6-2 in the opening match.