Brazil Serie A – Big Match Preview: Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras

Infogol provides betting tips and analysis for the big match of the weekend in the Brazilian Serie A between Sao Paulo and 2016 Champions Palmeiras.

 

 

Sao Paulo

 

Sao Paulo got off to a slow start this season, losing away at Cruzeiro in their opening match 1-0 in what was a very tight game. The final expected goals (xG) from that match was 1.26 – 1.06 in Cruzeiro’s favour, but Infogol calculates that Sao Paulo had a 60% chance of avoiding defeat.

  

Sao Paulo got off the mark next time in their first home game, beating newly-promoted Avai 2-0. This was another tight game, in which neither team created many chances (xG = 0.64 - 0.36). A draw was the most likely outcome according to Infogol’s calculations, but Sao Paulo managed to score two goals from very low-probability chances. 

 

    A tight match with few chances: shot-map of Sao Paulo vs Avai

 

Sao Paulo put in a very good defensive display against Avai, conceding no shots on target and limiting their opponents to efforts from distance. Getting Lucas Pratto on the goal trail was a huge boost also, and he can provide a big threat in this match.

 

Palmeiras

 

Palmeiras got their title defence off to the best possible start with a 4-0 thrashing of Vasco da Gama. Two of their goals came from the penalty spot, but they created a lot of good chances (non-penalty xG of 2.18) as new striker Miguel Borja got off the mark. 

 

The Champions didn’t look totally assured in defence, however, as they conceded 1.54 xG to Vasco, something highlighted even more in their next game as they played away at Chapecoense and went down 1-0 in a game which their performance was very underwhelming. Chapecoense seemingly exposed Palmeiras’ defensive issues by creating 1.68 xG – suggesting that the Vasco game wasn’t a one off in terms of a defensive performance.

 

Defensively vulnerable?: Chapecoense vs Palmeiras shot-map

 

 

Conclusion

 

 

With Palmeiras looking potentially vulnerable at the back having conceded some good chances in both of their opening fixtures, the Infogol Analyst Verdict is that a home win is the best bet for this match. And if the home team are to win, Lucas Pratto will be the most likely scorer.

 

Bets

Sao Paulo @ 29/20

Lucas Pratto first goal-scorer

 

 

Recent blog entries