Brazilian Serie A GW2 Review
Infogol review’s the second week of action in the Brazilian Serie A 2017 season, judging performances and not just results.
Actual vs Expected Goal Totals for GW2
Gremio and Fluminense maintained their 100% starts to the Brazilian Serie A season thanks to away wins, but both were seemingly fortunate to get all three points. The Immortal Tricolour top the league at this early stage on goal-difference, that after registering another 2-0 win. They beat Atletico Paranaense, although Infogol calculates that the chances of them scoring two from their 0.77 xG was just 13.7%, with a draw the most likely outcome.
Percentage chance of scoring (x) from xG created
Fluminense weathered a second-half Atletico Mineiro onslaught to register a 2-1 win, riding their luck at times, but new striker Henrique Dourado has hit the ground running – three goals and one assist in two matches for him.
Botafogo, Santos and Sao Paulo all bounced back from defeats by beating Ponte Preta, Coritiba and Avai respectively, but were all very unconvincing, creating very little in the form of high-quality chances. Santos won 1-0, although there was an element of good fortune, as the visiting Coritiba missed a last minute penalty to gift the home team all three points.
Coritiba Penalty Heartache
Sport Recife, Vitoria and Avai are still winless after two matches, but the aforementioned were slightly unfortunate not to beat Cruzeiro, creating the better chances but failing to take advantage in the second-half and having to settle for a 1-1 draw.
There were also away wins for Corinthians and Flamengo, the latter of which were dominant in victory, comfortably beating Atletico Goianiense finishing with 3.03 xG in a deserved 3-0 rout.
Chapecoense put in another great display, this time against Champions Palmeiras, as they ran out 1-0 winners. They once again created a lot of good chances, but more impressively limited their opponents to just 0.35 xG created – meaning they have conceded the fewest xG of any team this season.
The performance of game week two was by Vasco da Gama, who edged past Bahia 2-1, but the score line doesn’t reflect the full story.
xG shot-map of Vasco da Gama vs Bahia
Vasco were rampant in this match, creating high-quality chances throughout, and were unlucky not to win by a bigger margin. 3.43 xG is the highest of any team so far this season, and if they can get anywhere near this performance in their next game against Fluminense, they will have a good chance.
GW3 Team to watch – Vasco da Gama
Vasco look full value at 8/5 to pick up another home win against Fluminense, who have been fortunate in both their games so far.