Brazilian Serie A GW1 Review
Infogol takes a look back at the first game-week of the Brazilian Serie A season, judging performances not results.
Actual vs Expected Goals for GW1
Newly promoted Bahia top the table after one match thanks to a 6-2 thrashing of Atletico Paranaense. Although they deserved to win, they were very fortunate to hit six, as Infogol calculates they had only a 2.1% chance of scoring that many from the chances they created.
Percentage chance of scoring (x) from xG created
Another newly promoted team, Vasco da Gama, prop up the table along with Sport Recife after both were beaten 4-0. Vasco da Gama were well beaten by reigning champions Palmeiras, conceding a lot of chances, including two penalties, while Sport Recife were unlucky to lose as heavily as they did, but offered very little in the form of attack.
Cruzeiro, Coritiba and Gremio all registered home wins, although the two aforementioned were slightly fortunate to come away with all three points. Flamengo and Atletico Mineiro deservedly shared the spoils, while unfancied Chapecoense gained a good point and could have got all three against Corinthians, as they created the better of the chances – with Infogol calculating that they would have won this game 69% of the time with the chances they generated.
Santos appear to have been unfortunate to lose away at Fluminense, as they created 2.32 xG compared to Fluminense’s 1.78, Infogol suggesting they would avoid defeat 70% of the time. Meanwhile the only goalless match of the weekend came at Avai, as they were held by Vitoria in a game of very few chances.
xG map of Fluminense vs Santos
GW2 Team to Watch – Santos
Santos, unlucky to lose last time out, host Coritiba who themselves were fortunate to get a 4-1 win, so don’t be surprised if Santos get the three points in that game.